Market Report – Week Ending January 24, 2020

Market is mixed. Total beef production for last week was up 16.2% compared to prior week and was up 2.4% compared to same time last year. Total headcount for last week was 546,000 as compared to 535,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were down 2 lbs. from prior week but up 8 lbs. from same time last year. Live cattle prices have moved higher as we moved into this week and were at their highest point since April of last year and have seen 16 straight weeks of increases. This is putting pressure on packer margins and could result in reduced production rates over the coming weeks if this trend continues. The Choice and higher grading percentage has been moving higher and recent reports show that more than 83% of cattle have been grading as Choice or higher. This is putting pressure on availability on Select graded product.

Grinds- Market is steady to firmer. The reduced production the past few weeks combined with improved demand has been putting pressure on the market this week. Pricing and availability are mixed between packers.

Loins- Market is mostly steady. The market has become steadier this week after seeing larger drops the past few weeks and after seeing some items move slightly higher at the end of last week.

Rounds- Market is steady to firmer. Lighter inventory levels and improved buying interest is putting pressure on the market.

Chucks- Market is mostly steady.

Ribs- Market is mixed. Availability it mixed between packers this week with both higher and lower prices being seen in the market. Select grade product is more difficult to come by due to the high % of Choice grade.

Market is unsettled. Total pork production for last week was down 4.2% versus prior week but was up 3.3% compared to same time last year. Total headcount for last week was 2,574,000 as compared to 2,488,000 for same time last year. Live weights for last week were even with prior week and even with same time last year. The severe weather has been causing issues for both production and outgoing logistics. The winter storms and extreme cold temperatures have been causing delays and mixed inventories between suppliers. Export buying interest has been very good putting additional pressure on the market. Additional cases of African Swine Fever were reported again this week and helping to keep the market unsettled.

Bellies- Market is steady to firmer. Buying interest has been improved and putting pressure on fresh belly inventories.

Hams- Market is firmer. Overall demand is improved with export interest being very good.

Loins- Market is unsettled. Availability is mixed between packers with the severe winter weather putting additional pressure on the market.

Butts- Market is mostly steady.

Ribs- Market is steady to firmer. Buying interest for Super Bowl activities is very good.

Market is steady. Total headcount for last week was 174,538,000 as compared to 167,857,000 for the same week last year. Average weights for last week were 6.33 lbs. as compared to 6.13 lbs. for the same week last year. Now that the industry is three full weeks into the new year, consistent patterns of supply and demand are starting to develop. Due to the colder weather this week, plants are reporting lighter than normal bird weights. Domestic demand for boneless breast, tenders, and wings continues to be steady. Export activity on leg quarters and whole legs remains active enough to keep the market supported. As reported in past weeks, future potential from the Chinese market remains to be determined. Supply is being reported as available across most lines of business.

WOGS- Market is steady. Domestic demand for sized product and cutting stock WOGS continues to receive steady activity from the retail deli and foodservice channels. Lighter bird weights are causing some challenges in meeting correct size requirements. Supply is available.

Tenders- Market is steady to firmer. Foodservice and QSR demand is starting to improve and this activity is strengthening the market. Additional demand from further processors is also being reported. Supply is available but starting to tighten up.

Boneless Breast- Market is steady to weaker. Demand for this category is related to the size of the product. Medium and small sizes continue to have adequate support from the retail and QSR channels. Demand for jumbo breast meat is weaker than expected for this time of year. Supply on medium and small sizes is available. Supply on jumbo is in excess.

Leg Quarters and Thighs- Market is steady to weaker. Fresh leg quarters continue to be supported by the retail channel and frozen leg quarters continue to get adequate support from the export market. Boneless thigh meat has had a recent decrease in interest and is causing the market to be pressured. Supply is available.

Wings- Market is firmer. Wing season is here, and demand activity is being reported as very good. Foodservice demand for jumbo wings is vibrant and further processors are using medium and small sizes to build inventory. Supply is tight, market is being pressured.

Market is mixed. Total headcount for last week was 4,181,000 as compared to 4,254,000 for the same week last year. Average weights for last week were 33.55 lbs. as compared to 33.15 lbs. for the same week last year. Egg sets for last week were down 4.59% from prior week and are trending down 0.05% for year to date versus same time last year. Depending on the category, demand activity is showing varying degrees of interest. Demand for whole birds is steady as the customer base is starting to book their holiday needs earlier this year. As for turkey parts and boneless breast, demand continues to be average at best. Export activity for frozen parts remains adequate at the current time and mostly unchanged. Supply is available.

Whole Birds- Market is steady. Due to freezer stocks being reported as lower than last year, many customers are starting to look at their holiday needs earlier this year. Supply is available.

Breast Meat- Market is steady to weaker. Domestic demand from the foodservice and retail deli channels is being reported as lighter than expected to start the year. The market on breast meat and breast trim is being pressured at the current time. Supply for fresh and frozen boneless is available.

Wings- Market is steady to firmer. Interest for wings has been active recently. Whole wings and two joints continue to receive adequate interest from the export and domestic markets. Supply is available.

Drums- Market is steady. Not much is being reported in this category. Demand for hen and tom drums continues to be steady enough to support the market. Supply is available.

Gulf Shrimp- Market is firm. Inventories are light for current demand. Production has been light and typically does not see a seasonal pick up until spring.

Black Tiger Shrimp- Market is steady.

White Shrimp- Market is steady. Demand has been seasonally slower now that we have moved past the holidays.

King Crab- Market is firm. Global demand has been strong for several months and keeping pressure on the market.

Snow Crab- Market is firm. Inventories are light for an active demand.

Warm Water Lobster Tails- Market is firm. Inventories are limited for an active demand. Imports have been well below expectations for the past couple years and keeping pressure on availability.

North American Lobster Tails- Market is firm. Pricing is at very high levels due to the limited availability. Lighter than expected production combined with the limited availability from other regions is keeping pressure on this market.

Salmon- Market is steady to firmer. Inventories are light for an active demand. There have been delays in shipments from Chile that have been putting additional pressure on the market.

Cod- Market is steady.

Flounder- Market is steady.

Haddock- Market is unsettled. The removal of the 25% tariff has the market in an unsettled tone as we move into next week.

Pollock- Market is unsettled. Recent catches have been more on smaller sized fish and this is putting pressure on availability of larger sized fillets. Demand leading into Lent has been very good.

Domestic Catfish- Market is unsettled. Light production last year helped to keep inventories light for an active demand. Lighter imports of other species also put additional pressure on the market. The market has become steadier of the past several days but remains in a more unsettled tone as we move closer to Lent.

Tilapia- Market is steady.

Swai- Market is unsettled. Pricing has been sporadic between suppliers the past several weeks as inventories levels have varied greatly between suppliers. Low import numbers and higher production costs are helping to hold this market in a more unsettled tone.

Scallops- Market is steady.

Market is firmer. The CME Block and Barrel market moved higher this week. The gap between block and barrel markets has grown, once again, to levels which leave market participants uneasy, to say the least. Despite the uneasiness, producers continue to pull ample milk volumes for most of the country. Production schedules are running 7-days/week in most regions. Football season is helping to increase demand for both retail and food service segments especially for mozzarella and provolone. In the West and Midwest producers report steady weekly demand with manageable inventories.

Market is unsettled. The CME Butter market has moved both higher and lower this week. Across the country producers are reporting ample cream supply which translates into additional production. That added inventory is being built up in anticipation for spring seasonal demand. Northeast producers report plenty of cream from both local sources as well as sources from outside their region. Central producers report similar conditions. Producers anticipate continued ample cream availability for at least the next few weeks. In the West inventories are adequate. Producers are finding higher freight costs are prohibitive to bringing in cream supplies from other areas.

Market is steady to firmer. Retail demand has experienced an uptick in consumer activity due the colder weather across many regions of the country. Promotional activity is improving as retailers are using eggs as a driver of store activity. Foodservice demand and QSR sales continue to be reported as adequate. Supply across all sizes is being reported as available. Market is trending upwards on medium sizes and large sizes. National weekly shell egg inventory reports shell egg inventory
down 4.7% over last week.

Market is soft. The announcing of the trade deal with China helped give the market an upward boost, but it has lowered over the past few days and the market remains well above same time last year.

Market is firm. Wheat futures prices are slightly higher supported by steadily increasing world wheat prices. The newly signed China/U.S. trade agreement and smaller U.S. wheat crops are also driving this market. The USDA forecasts a smaller wheat carryover than previous years.